Bangladesh protests: What are the implications of the political upheaval?

The Bangladesh protests began with student-led demonstrations against government hiring rules has culminated in the Prime Minister fleeing and the military announcing it would form an interim government. Read here to understand the issue in depth.

The recent political turmoil in Bangladesh, marked by the resignation of the Prime Minister and the establishment of an interim government led by the Bangladesh Army, underscores the complex and volatile nature of regional politics.

This situation presents significant implications for India’s foreign policy and strategic interests in the region.

Bangladesh protests: Background

The recent political turmoil in Bangladesh has led to significant unrest and the ousting of the government, primarily due to widespread protests against the existing job quota system.

• These protests, which have turned violent, began as a response to the 30% reservation in government jobs for families of those who fought in the 1971 war of independence.
• Protesters argue that this system benefits supporters of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League and should be replaced with a merit-based system.
• Key events during the protests include deadly clashes between students and police, with significant casualties reported, the storming of a prison, and the setting on fire of government facilities and the state broadcaster.
• These actions have led to a nationwide curfew and heightened tensions across the country.

What is the quota and why is it being protested?

The quota system in Bangladesh, originally designed to honour the sacrifices of freedom fighters (Mukti joddhas) and women who suffered during the 1971 Liberation War, has become a subject of significant controversy and protests over the years.

• In 1972, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman established a quota for freedom fighters and women who had been tortured by the Pakistani military.
• Following his assassination in 1975, the scope of the quota system was expanded to include underrepresented sections of society, such as individuals from underdeveloped areas, women in general, and ethnic minorities.

Reasons for Protests

Reduction in Eligible Freedom Fighters: As time passed, the number of living freedom fighters who could benefit from the quota system naturally declined. This led to the underutilization of the quotas initially intended for them.

Generational Extension: Critics argue that it was fair to provide reservations to freedom fighters when they were young and seeking employment. However, extending these benefits to their children and grandchildren is contentious.

• The rationale is that the original purpose of compensating the freedom fighters for their sacrifices is diluted when benefits are provided to subsequent generations who did not directly participate in the war.

Suspected Misuse: There are suspicions that shortfalls in the reserved seats meant for freedom fighters are being filled by party members of the ruling Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina.

• This has raised concerns about the quotas being used for political patronage rather than the intended social justice.

Public Sentiment and Protests:

• The general public, particularly the youth and job seekers, have expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of the quota system. They argue that it creates an unfair advantage for certain groups and does not reflect the meritocratic principles needed for modern governance and employment practices.
• Protests have been widespread, with demonstrators calling for a reform or abolition of the quota system to ensure fair competition and opportunities based on merit.

Government Response: In response to the protests, the government has occasionally promised reforms and reviews of the quota system. However, substantial changes have been slow to materialize, maintaining the tensions between the government and protesters.

How has India responded to Bangladesh protests?

India has responded cautiously to the situation, emphasizing that the unrest is an internal matter of Bangladesh.

However, India has facilitated the safe return of thousands of Indian citizens, including students, from Bangladesh amidst the violence.

The Indian government has reiterated its hope for a quick return to normalcy, highlighting the importance of stability in Bangladesh for regional security and economic reasons.

India’s strategic interests in Bangladesh, such as maintaining security along the porous border and ensuring the continuity of economic and developmental projects, play a significant role in its response.

India views Sheikh Hasina’s government as crucial in preventing Bangladesh from aligning too closely with China, thus maintaining a delicate balance in the region’s geopolitical landscape.

• Principle of Democracy: India, as the world’s largest democracy, has a vested interest in promoting and supporting democratic processes in its neighbourhood. Supporting democratic aspirations in Bangladesh aligns with India’s broader foreign policy objective of fostering stable, democratic governments in the region.
• People-to-People Ties: Strong historical and cultural ties between India and Bangladesh mean that political stability in Bangladesh directly impacts India. Support for democracy can strengthen these ties and promote regional stability.
• Security Concerns: Political instability in Bangladesh can lead to security challenges for India, including potential cross-border terrorism and refugee influxes. Maintaining a strategic relationship with the interim government is crucial to address these security concerns effectively.
• Economic Interests: Bangladesh is a significant trade partner for India. Political stability is essential for the continuation of economic cooperation, trade, and investment initiatives between the two countries.
• Geopolitical Balance: India’s engagement with Bangladesh is also a strategic counterbalance to the influence of other regional powers, particularly China. Ensuring a stable and friendly government in Dhaka is crucial for India to maintain its influence in South Asia.
• Bilateral Cooperation: India and Bangladesh have cooperated on various fronts, including infrastructure projects, energy, and connectivity initiatives. Continued collaboration on these projects is essential for regional development and integration.

Possible Strategic Actions for India

• Diplomatic Engagement: India should engage diplomatically with all stakeholders in Bangladesh to promote a peaceful resolution to the political crisis. This includes supporting dialogues that lead to free and fair elections. High-level diplomatic visits and consultations can help reinforce India’s commitment to Bangladesh’s democratic process.
• Economic Assistance: Providing economic assistance and support for developmental projects can help stabilize Bangladesh’s economy during the interim period. This can also strengthen India’s economic ties with Bangladesh.
• Security Collaboration: Enhanced security cooperation to address any immediate threats arising from political instability is vital. Joint efforts in intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism can help manage any security fallout.
• Regional Multilateral Forums: Utilizing regional forums like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) to build a consensus on supporting Bangladesh’s democratic process and ensuring regional stability.

Conclusion

The protests over the quota system in Bangladesh stem from the perceived inequities and misuse of a system initially designed to honour and support those who sacrificed during the Liberation War.

The generational extension of benefits and alleged political misuse have fueled public dissatisfaction, highlighting the need for a comprehensive review and potential reform of the quota system to balance social justice with meritocratic principles.

The political upheaval in Bangladesh poses significant challenges and opportunities for India. By supporting democratic aspirations while maintaining strategic relationships, India can contribute to regional stability and promote its long-term strategic interests in South Asia. Balancing diplomatic, economic, and security initiatives will be crucial for India in navigating this complex political landscape.

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-Article by Swathi Satish