Future of India and Bangladesh Relations

The future of India and Bangladesh Relations is at a crossroads with strategic challenges ahead. Read here to learn more.

Bangladesh has long been a cornerstone of India’s Neighbourhood First Policy, Act East Policy, and its broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

The ongoing political churn, therefore, represents not merely a bilateral concern but a test of India’s regional diplomacy, security calculus, and narrative management.

Future of India and Bangladesh Relations

A recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, titled “Future of India–Bangladesh Relationship”, has described developments in Bangladesh as India’s most serious strategic challenge since the 1971 Liberation War.

This assessment reflects the depth of political realignment in Dhaka, the resurgence of anti-India narratives, and the intensifying external influence in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

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Read: India-Bangladesh relations

Recent Developments in Bangladesh Posing Strategic Challenges

Fundamental Political Realignment

The August 2024 fall of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina ended nearly a decade and a half of relative political continuity and pro-India engagement. The vacuum has been filled by:

• The emergence of new political formations, such as the National Citizen Party (NCP), led by student activists with strong nationalist rhetoric.
• The political re-entry of Jamaat-e-Islami, widely perceived in India as holding adversarial views.

This shift has dismantled the predictability that underpinned close security, connectivity, and development cooperation.

Intensifying External Influence

Bangladesh’s strategic diversification has accelerated:

• China’s growing footprint, including plans to upgrade the Lalmonirhat airfield, is located close to India’s vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (Chicken’s Neck).
• Renewed Pakistani outreach, exemplified by the visit of Pakistan Navy frigate PNS Saif to Bangladesh.

These developments risk eroding India’s traditional strategic primacy and heightening concerns of encirclement and two-front pressure.

Anti-India Protests and Diplomatic Vulnerability

Domestic unrest following the killing of Bangladeshi youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi led to:

• Violent protests
• Vandalisation of India’s Assistant High Commission in Chattogram

This underscores how internal political instability in Bangladesh can rapidly spill over into diplomatic and security challenges for India.

The issue of refuge to Sheikh Hasina

India’s decision to provide refuge to the ousted Prime Minister on humanitarian grounds has become a bilateral irritant. Bangladesh’s interim authorities accuse Hasina of fomenting unrest from Indian soil and have sought her extradition, while India maintains that:

• It offers no political platform
• The decision is purely humanitarian

This has complicated trust and reinforced narratives of Indian interference.

Critical Bilateral Issues in Limbo

• The Ganga Water Treaty (1996) is due for renewal in December 2026
• Formal negotiations have not yet begun

Delays risk creating a strategic vacuum, domestic politicisation in Bangladesh, and long-term water insecurity narratives.

Shifting Societal Sentiments

A new generation in Bangladesh is:

• Less emotionally anchored to the shared memory of 1971
• More assertive in nationalist and sometimes anti-India rhetoric

Statements by leaders such as Hasnat Abdullah (NCP), including threats related to India’s Northeast, illustrate the convergence of youth nationalism and ideological radicalism, posing long-term security risks.

Implications for India

1. Geopolitical and Strategic Security

• Loss of a predictable partner in Dhaka weakens India’s eastern security architecture
• Chinese infrastructure presence near sensitive corridors exacerbates strategic vulnerability
• Pakistani re-engagement raises concerns of strategic coordination

2. Internal Security

• Increased risk of illegal migration and infiltration
• Potential spread of radical ideologies across porous borders
• Communal polarisation within India’s border states

3. Diplomatic and Normative Challenges

• Extradition demands and protest diplomacy strain mutual trust
• Anti-India narratives erode the goodwill built over decades
• Complicates negotiations on water sharing and connectivity

4. Economic and Connectivity Risks

• Threats to cross-border connectivity projects
• Potential slowdown in transit arrangements critical for India’s Northeast
• Undermining of Neighbourhood First and Act East objectives

5. Narrative and Perception Loss

India increasingly risks being perceived as:

• A hegemonic or imperialist power
• A supporter of authoritarian regimes rather than democratic aspirations

This perception battle is as critical as material strategic losses.

India and Bangladesh Relations: Achievements So Far

Despite current challenges, the relationship rests on strong foundations:

• Peaceful boundary resolution: 2015 Land Boundary Agreement and maritime delimitation
• Economic ties: Bilateral trade of USD 14.01 billion (FY 2023–24); Bangladesh is India’s largest South Asian trade partner
• Connectivity: Rail, road, inland waterways, port access (Chattogram and Mongla)
• Energy cooperation: 1160 MW power exports; Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant
• Development partnership: Nearly USD 8 billion Lines of Credit; defence LoC of USD 500 million
• Capacity building: Thousands of Bangladeshi civil servants, judges, and defence personnel trained in India

These assets must be preserved and adapted to new political realities.

Way Forward

1. Institutional Crisis Management

• Establish a formal India and Bangladesh Political Crisis Response Mechanism.
• Create a High-Level Consular Coordination Cell for citizen safety and mobility.

2. Engage Beyond Governments

• Proactive engagement with all political parties, youth groups, civil society, media, and academia.
• Strengthen Track 1.5 and Track II diplomacy to counter misinformation and build trust.

3. Transparent Narrative Management

• Clearly and consistently frame Sheikh Hasina’s refuge as a humanitarian, non-political act.
• Avoid ambiguity that fuels suspicion.

4. Proactive Water Diplomacy

• Initiate early negotiations on the Ganga Water Treaty renewal.
• Adopt basin-wide river management for the Teesta and other shared rivers.
• Enhance joint data sharing and hydrological cooperation.

5. Reimagining the Spirit of 1971

• Shift from historical rhetoric to people-centric cooperation.
• Joint humanitarian, cultural, and youth-focused initiatives to rebuild emotional connections.

6. Offer a Competitive Development Model

• Counter external influence not through exclusivity, but by:
  • Faster implementation
  • Transparency
  • Local capacity building
• Focus on infrastructure, digital connectivity, and climate resilience.

7. Deepen Security Coordination

• Real-time border coordination between BSF and BGB.
• Joint hotlines and protocols to prevent escalation amid rising infiltration attempts.

Conclusion

India and Bangladesh relations are at a critical inflection point, shaped by political upheaval, youth nationalism, and strategic competition. The challenge before India is not merely to restore past equations, but to recalibrate its diplomacy for a changing Bangladesh.

By engaging all stakeholders, managing sensitive issues transparently, offering credible development partnerships, and balancing humanitarian values with strategic realism, India can safeguard its interests while contributing to regional stability. The future of this relationship will significantly shape India’s eastern security, neighbourhood diplomacy, and Indo-Pacific role.