Climate Change impact on Diary Sector

The Climate change impact on Diary Sector in India has been highlighted by a recent study. Read here to learn more.

A recent study published in Scientific Reports has highlighted the growing impact of climate change on India’s dairy sector. The research found that heat stress is significantly reducing milk production in the trans-Gangetic plains of northwestern India, particularly in Haryana, one of the country’s leading milk-producing states.

The findings underscore that rising temperatures, increasing humidity, and changing climatic conditions threaten not only livestock productivity but also rural livelihoods, food security, and India’s position as the world’s largest milk producer.

Climate change impact on Diary Sector

Heat Stress: The Primary Threat

The study establishes that heat stress, rather than winter temperature variations, is the principal climatic factor affecting milk production.

• Temperatures above 38°C combined with relative humidity exceeding 70% (common during July-August monsoon months) cause sharp declines in milk yield.
• Such conditions push dairy animals beyond their thermal comfort zone, significantly reducing productivity.

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET): A Critical Indicator

The research identifies Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) as a key climatic indicator.

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of water that could evaporate and transpire if sufficient moisture were available. It reflects the atmospheric demand for water and serves as an indicator of heat stress.

The study found that:

• Every one-unit increase in PET reduces milk production by nearly 1.4 litres per buffalo per day.

Current Economic Losses

Heat stress already imposes a significant economic burden.

• Annual milk loss: 3.2 million tonnes
• Estimated financial loss: ₹2,661 crore annually

Future Projections

If climate change continues unchecked:

• Milk losses could reach 15 million tonnes annually by the 2050s.
• According to The Lancet, India’s total milk production may decline by 25% by 2085.

Heat Stress in Dairy Animals

Dairy animals function efficiently only within a specific thermal comfort zone.

When environmental temperatures rise beyond this range, especially under high humidity, animals experience heat stress, commonly measured using the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI).

Physiological Effects

Increased Energy Expenditure

• Animals divert metabolic energy towards panting, sweating, and maintaining body temperature instead of milk production.
• As a result, milk yield declines by 20-30%.

Hormonal Changes

Heat stress raises cortisol levels, which-

• suppresses appetite
• impairs the milk ejection reflex
• affects reproductive performance

Reduced Feed Intake

• Heat-stressed animals consume less feed.
• Lower nutrient intake creates a negative energy balance, directly reducing milk synthesis.

Weak Immunity

Prolonged heat exposure weakens immune function, increasing susceptibility to:

• mastitis
• parasitic infections
• bacterial diseases

This increases veterinary expenditure.

Differential Vulnerability of Dairy Animals

Buffaloes – Most Vulnerable

Buffaloes are particularly susceptible because:

• dark skin absorbs more heat
• fewer sweat glands reduce cooling
• dependence on wallowing for thermoregulation

Consequently, buffaloes suffer the greatest productivity losses during heatwaves.

Cross-bred Cattle

Cross-bred cattle produce higher quantities of milk, but:

• generate more metabolic heat
• possess poor adaptation to tropical climates

Hence, they experience severe heat stress.

Indigenous Breeds

Native Bos indicus breeds exhibit greater climate resilience.

Examples include:

• Sahiwal
• Gir
• Hariana
• Tharparkar
• Red Sindhi

Their advantages include:

• loose skin
• efficient sweating
• heat tolerance
• disease resistance
• lower metabolic heat production

Implications for India’s Dairy Sector

Threat to Rural Livelihoods

India has nearly 80 million dairy farmers, most of whom are:

• smallholders
• marginal farmers
• landless households

These farmers contribute approximately 85% of India’s milk production.

Reduced milk yield directly lowers household income and increases indebtedness.

Food Inflation

Milk and dairy products carry significant weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Declining production leads to:

• higher milk prices
• increased prices of curd, butter, paneer and ghee
• greater inflationary pressure.

Impact on Agricultural Growth

Livestock contributes nearly 30% of Agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA).

Lower dairy productivity affects:

• agricultural income
• rural consumption
• GDP growth.

Threat to Dairy Cooperatives

India’s cooperative dairy model (e.g., Amul) depends on collecting small quantities of milk from millions of producers.

Reduced per-animal productivity can:

• lower procurement volumes
• reduce processing efficiency
• weaken cooperative sustainability.

Women Empowerment

Women account for over 70% of India’s dairy workforce.

Declining dairy income affects SDG 5 (Gender Equality) due to the reduction of-

• women’s financial independence
• household decision-making
• rural entrepreneurship

Nutritional Security

Milk remains a major source of protein, calcium, and Vitamin B12, especially for children and pregnant women.

Lower availability and higher prices threaten:

• POSHAN Abhiyaan
• nutritional security
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).

Soil Fertility

Livestock provides Farm Yard Manure (FYM).

Declining cattle populations may increase dependence on chemical fertilisers, leading to:

• soil degradation
• nitrate pollution
• declining soil organic carbon.

Crop Residue Management

Livestock consume:

• paddy straw
• wheat straw
• maize stalks

Reduced livestock populations may increase stubble burning, worsening air pollution in northern India.

Climate Feedback Loop

To compensate for declining productivity, farmers may increase herd size.

This leads to intensifying climate change due to-

• higher methane emissions
• increased fodder demand
• greater pressure on grazing lands

India’s Dairy Sector at a Glance

• India is the largest milk producer in the world.
• Average productivity:
  • India: 1,777 kg/animal/year
  • Global average: 2,699 kg/animal/year
• Despite a 27.95% productivity growth (2013-2020), climate change threatens the gains of the White Revolution.

Government Initiatives

Rashtriya Gokul Mission (RGM)

• Conservation and genetic improvement of indigenous cattle.
• Promotion of high-quality breeding.

National Livestock Mission (NLM)

• Livestock entrepreneurship
• Fodder development
• Breed improvement

Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund (AHIDF)

Supports:

• dairy processing
• milk chilling
• feed manufacturing
• livestock infrastructure

National Animal Disease Control Programme (NADCP)

Focuses on controlling:

• Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)
• Brucellosis

e-Pashuhaat & Pashu Sanjivni

Digital platforms for:

• livestock breeding
• veterinary services
• disease surveillance

Measures for a Climate-Smart Dairy Strategy

Climate Early Warning Systems

• Integrate Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) into weather advisory systems to warn farmers of impending heat stress.

Climate-Resilient Breeding

Rather than focusing solely on higher milk yields, reorient the Rashtriya Gokul Mission towards:

• thermo-tolerant breeds
• indigenous Bos indicus genetics
• farmer-led breed conservation

Climate-Smart Infrastructure

Expand financial support under AHIDF for:

• shaded cattle sheds
• sprinklers
• foggers
• misting systems
• wallowing ponds
• continuous drinking water

Promote agroforestry to provide natural shade.

Fodder Security

To ensure year-round feed availability, encourage:

• drought-resistant fodder crops
• silage production
• fodder banks

Heat-Index Based Insurance

• Develop livestock insurance linked to THI, PET, and heatwave intensity to compensate farmers for climate-induced productivity losses.

Research and Innovation

Strengthen research on:

• climate-resilient livestock breeds
• nutritional supplements
• precision dairy farming
• wearable livestock sensors for monitoring heat stress.

Conclusion

Climate change is emerging as one of the greatest long-term threats to India’s dairy sector. Rising temperatures, increasing humidity, and frequent heatwaves are already reducing milk yields, jeopardising rural livelihoods, nutritional security, women’s economic empowerment, and agricultural growth.

Protecting the achievements of the White Revolution now requires a “White Revolution 2.0” that integrates climate-smart livestock management, conservation of indigenous heat-tolerant breeds, advanced meteorological forecasting, resilient dairy infrastructure, and scientific breeding programmes.

Such a comprehensive strategy will not only safeguard India’s dairy economy but also strengthen food sovereignty, rural resilience, and sustainable development in the face of a warming climate.