Snowfall Deficit in the Himalayas

The winters are observing Snowfall Deficit in the Western Himalayas. Read here to know the Causes, Implications of the climate crisis.

Large parts of the western Himalayas are witnessing an unusually dry and snowless winter, with Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir recording severe rainfall and snowfall deficits during December-January.

This deviation from normal winter patterns has raised serious concerns regarding climate variability, water security, agriculture, forest fires, and fragile Himalayan ecosystems.

Snowfall in the western Himalayas is a critical climatic process that sustains glaciers, regulates river flows, supports rabi agriculture, and maintains ecological balance. The current deficit signals bigger structural changes in regional climate behaviour rather than a short-term anomaly.

Table of Contents

What is Driving the Snowfall Deficit in the Western Himalayas?

Weak and Moisture-Deficient Western Disturbances (WDs)

Western Disturbances (WDs) are the primary drivers of winter precipitation in the western Himalayas.

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In recent winters, including 2025-26, most WDs have been:
- Weak in intensity
- Moisture-deficient
- Shallow low-pressure systems
Weak vertical uplift has resulted in:
- Short-lived precipitation events
- Poor cloud formation
- Limited snow accumulation
Reduced circulation strength has also shortened the residence time of WDs over the region, lowering condensation and precipitation efficiency.

Altered Trajectory of Western Disturbances

Several WDs have followed a northward and higher-latitude trajectory
This diversion has caused:
- Limited snowfall in parts of Kashmir
- Prolonged dry conditions in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand

As a result, winter precipitation has become spatially uneven, reducing overall snow coverage across the western Himalayan belt.

Weakened Interaction with Moisture-Bearing Winds

Under normal conditions, WDs interact with:

Moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea
Occasionally from the Bay of Bengal

In recent years:

This wind confluence has weakened
Reduced moisture inflow has limited cloud formation
Resulted in lower snowfall and rainfall over the Himalayas

Changes in the Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream

The Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream (STWJ) plays a key role in steering WDs toward the Indian subcontinent.

Recent observations show:

Weakening of the jet stream
Positional shifts northward
Reduced ability to guide WDs deep into the Indian region

Consequently, many WDs either:

Bypass India
Lose strength before reaching the Himalayas

Long-Term Climatic Variability and Warming

Rising global temperatures have increased winter temperatures in mountain regions
This has:
- Raised the snowline altitude
- Converted snowfall into rainfall at lower and mid-elevations
Repeated dry winters over the past decade point toward a systemic climatic shift
Studies indicate a gradual decline in winter precipitation across parts of North India, reflecting increasing climate variability rather than isolated weather events

Western Disturbances (WDs)

Western Disturbances are eastward-moving extra-tropical weather systems
Originate over:
- Mediterranean Sea
- Black Sea
- Caspian Sea
Embedded in the Westerly Jet Stream
Accumulate moisture while traversing:
- West Asia
- Iran
- Afghanistan
- Pakistan
On encountering the Himalayan barrier:
- Air rises, cools, and condenses
- Produces rainfall in plains and snowfall at higher altitudes

Due to their west-to-east movement:

Kashmir receives the first snowfall
Followed by Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand
Occasionally extends to Nepal and Northeast India

Implications of Delayed or Snowless Himalayan Winters

Threats to Water Security

Snow acts as a natural reservoir, releasing water gradually through snowmelt
Reduced snowfall:
- Affects glacier mass balance
- Accelerates glacial retreat

This threatens the long-term sustainability of major rivers such as:

Ganga
Yamuna
Indus

Reduced summer flows will impact:

Drinking water availability
Irrigation
Hydropower generation in the downstream plains

Adverse Impact on Agriculture

Winter rainfall and early snowfall are crucial for rabi crops like wheat and mustard
Early snowfall:
- Allows slow percolation of moisture into the soil
- Supports crop growth

Delayed snowfall:

Melts rapidly due to higher temperatures
Provides limited agricultural benefit
Increases dependence on irrigation

Increased Forest Fire Risk

Absence of snowfall reduces the moisture content in forest floors
Dry winters increase vulnerability to forest fires

This is already evident in ecologically sensitive areas such as:

Valley of Flowers
Nanda Devi National Park

Forest fires lead to:

Biodiversity loss
Carbon emissions
Pressure on disaster management systems

Ecological and Biodiversity Stress

Himalayan ecosystems rely on predictable snow cycles for:
- Plant dormancy
- Wildlife survival

Snowless winters disrupt:

Alpine vegetation cycles
Breeding and migration patterns of fauna

This destabilises already fragile mountain ecosystems.

Socio-Economic Consequences

Reduced snowfall affects:
- Winter tourism
- Horticulture (especially apple cultivation)
- Local livelihoods

Snow-deficit years increase:

Economic uncertainty
Seasonal unemployment
Migration pressures in Himalayan states

What Steps Can India Take to Address Snowfall Deficit?

Strengthen Snow and Weather Monitoring

Expand high-altitude automatic weather stations under IMD in:
- Uttarakhand
- Himachal Pradesh
- Ladakh
Integrate satellite-based monitoring using:
- INSAT
- Cartosat

This will improve WD tracking and snowfall prediction.

Artificial Glaciers and Snow Storage

Scale up artificial glacier and ice-stupa projects, pioneered in Ladakh
Leverage momentum from the 2025 International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation

These structures store winter water and release it during spring, offsetting reduced snowfall.

Catchment and Spring Rejuvenation

Strengthen spring-shed management under NITI Aayog-supported programmes
Recharge groundwater in snow-deficient regions

The “Dhara Vikas” model used in Sikkim can be replicated in:

Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh

Strengthen Glacier Monitoring and Basin Planning

Enhance glacier monitoring under the National Mission on Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE)
Integrate data into basin-level planning for rivers like:
- Ganga
- Yamuna

Climate-Resilient Rabi Agriculture

Promote:
- Short-duration wheat varieties
- Drought-tolerant mustard strains
Expand micro-irrigation through ICAR-supported programmes to reduce dependence on winter rainfall

Forest Fire Prevention

Improve early-warning systems
Strengthen fire lines and community fire brigades
Focus on vulnerable zones like the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve
Implement NDMA guidelines rigorously

Sustainable Winter Tourism

Diversify tourism beyond snow-centric activities
Promote:
- Cultural tourism
- Wellness tourism
- Regulated eco-treks

This reduces economic shocks from snow variability.

Mainstream Snow Variability into Policy

Explicitly integrate snowfall variability into:
- State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs)
- Disaster management plans of the Himalayan states

Conclusion

The snowfall deficit in the western Himalayas reflects structural changes in regional climate dynamics, particularly the declining effectiveness of Western Disturbances. Its cascading impacts on water security, agriculture, disaster risk, ecosystems, and livelihoods make it a critical governance and climate adaptation challenge for India.

Addressing this challenge requires scientific monitoring, ecosystem-based adaptation, climate-resilient livelihoods, and region-specific policies, recognising that Himalayan climate variability is no longer an exception but an emerging norm.

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