Makkah Joint Defence Agreement

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan. Read here to understand the emergence of this new security triangle in West Asia.

The signing of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA) by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan marks an important development in the evolving security architecture of West Asia.

Signed at Al-Safa Palace in Makkah, the agreement establishes the principle that an armed attack against one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against all three.

The agreement is particularly significant because it comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia and growing uncertainty over the long-term reliability of the traditional US-led security architecture.

For India, the development has implications extending beyond West Asia, affecting the Indian Ocean, energy security, defence diplomacy, Pakistan’s strategic capabilities and India’s multi-alignment strategy.

What is the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement?

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is a trilateral defence and security arrangement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan based on collective deterrence.

Its central provision is that an armed attack against one member would be treated as an attack against all three.

This resembles the basic principle underlying Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, although the MJDA should not automatically be equated with NATO because its detailed operational mechanisms, enforcement provisions and institutional structures remain less developed.

The agreement envisages:

• Collective defence and deterrence
• Regular joint military training and exercises
• Greater military interoperability
• Formal intelligence-sharing mechanisms
• Cooperation in assessing emerging security threats
• Greater strategic coordination among the three-armed forces

Thus, the agreement represents an attempt to convert existing bilateral defence relationships into a broader trilateral security framework.

Saudi-Pakistan Cooperation to a Trilateral Pact

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement builds upon the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed in September 2025.

Türkiye subsequently joined the framework in August 2026, transforming the bilateral arrangement into a trilateral security mechanism.

This evolution is significant because each member brings a distinct strategic capability.

Saudi Arabia: Financial and Geographical Power

Saudi Arabia contributes:

• enormous financial resources
• energy resources
• a strategically crucial Gulf location
• substantial defence expenditure
• access to critical maritime trade and energy routes

Its principal objective is to strengthen security around its economic transformation under Vision 2030, including oil infrastructure, investment, tourism and emerging economic sectors.

Türkiye: Defence Technology and Industrial Capability

Türkiye contributes:

• a sophisticated defence-industrial base
• advanced unmanned aerial systems
• aerospace capabilities
• NATO-standard military interoperability
• growing defence-export capacity

For Ankara, deeper relations with Saudi Arabia provide access to capital and defence markets while enhancing its strategic influence in West Asia.

Pakistan: Military Manpower and Nuclear Capability

Pakistan contributes:

• substantial military manpower
• conventional military capabilities
• longstanding defence ties with Saudi Arabia
• nuclear weapons capability

The arrangement consequently combines Saudi financial power, Turkish defence technology and Pakistani military capabilities, creating a potentially significant regional security partnership.

Why Has the Agreement Emerged Now?

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement reflects several overlapping geopolitical trends.

Hedging against dependence on the United States

• Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied heavily on the US security umbrella. However, Riyadh has increasingly sought greater strategic autonomy and diversification of security partnerships.
• The agreement can therefore be interpreted as a form of strategic hedging, maintaining relations with Washington while simultaneously developing alternative regional security arrangements.
• This does not necessarily mean that Saudi Arabia is abandoning the United States. Rather, it indicates an attempt to ensure that its security does not depend exclusively on one external power.

Saudi Arabia’s Vulnerability to Regional Threats

Saudi Arabia faces several security vulnerabilities.

• The Houthi conflict in Yemen, threats around the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb expose Saudi energy infrastructure and trade routes to disruption.
• The possibility of missile, drone and proxy attacks has demonstrated the vulnerability of critical oil and economic infrastructure.

For Riyadh, stronger collective deterrence is therefore directly linked to protecting:

• oil exports
• energy infrastructure
• trade routes
• foreign investment
• tourism
• Vision 2030 projects

Türkiye’s Expanding Regional Role

Türkiye has increasingly attempted to project itself as an independent strategic actor in West Asia.

Its defence industry, particularly in drones, aerospace and other military technologies, has expanded considerably.

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement provides Ankara with an opportunity to:

• deepen relations with Saudi Arabia
• expand its defence exports
• obtain access to Saudi investment
• strengthen its influence in Gulf security
• increase its strategic leverage vis-à-vis Israel and other regional actors

Pakistan’s Search for Strategic Relevance

For Pakistan, the agreement offers an opportunity to strengthen its relevance beyond South Asia.

Closer military relations with Saudi Arabia could provide Islamabad with:

• greater strategic influence in West Asia
• stronger economic and energy ties
• defence cooperation
• diplomatic leverage
• access to Saudi financial resources

The pact therefore gives Pakistan a platform through which its strategic importance extends into the Gulf region.

Collective Defence: Similar to NATO, but Not NATO

The most consequential provision of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is its collective-defence principle.

If an armed attack against one member is regarded as an attack against all three, the agreement creates an element of strategic deterrence.

Conceptually, this resembles NATO’s Article 5.

However, several distinctions are important.

Several aspects of the MJDA remain unclear in comparison with NATO:

• enforcement mechanisms
• military command structure
• operational planning
• automaticity of military intervention
• institutional architecture

Therefore, it would be premature to regard the MJDA as a Middle Eastern equivalent of NATO.

Its immediate importance is more likely to lie in political signalling, deterrence and military coordination than in creating an integrated multinational military command.

Strategic Capabilities of the Three Countries

The agreement becomes more significant when the capabilities of the three countries are considered together.

Country	Major Strategic Contribution	Expected Benefit
Saudi Arabia	Financial resources, energy wealth and strategic Gulf geography	Greater security for Vision 2030 and energy infrastructure
Türkiye	Defence technology, drones, aerospace and military-industrial capabilities	Defence exports, Saudi investment and regional influence
Pakistan	Large military, conventional capabilities and nuclear capability	Greater strategic relevance and stronger Saudi ties
Combined	Finance, defence technology, military capability	Collective deterrence and greater strategic autonomy

This combination gives the pact considerable strategic potential, even though its actual effectiveness will depend on political cohesion and operational implementation.

Historical Context

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement has historical precedents.

West Asia and the broader Islamic world have witnessed several attempts to establish collective security arrangements.

Arab League Defence Pact, 1950

• The Treaty of Joint Defence and Economic Cooperation between Arab League states attempted to create a collective-security framework with a mutual-defence clause.
• However, political divisions and weak military coordination limited its effectiveness.

Baghdad Pact/CENTO, 1955

• The Baghdad Pact initially brought together Iraq, Türkiye, Pakistan, Iran and the United Kingdom.
• Its principal objective was to contain Soviet influence.
• Following Iraq’s withdrawal after the 1958 revolution, it became the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) and eventually dissolved in 1979 following the Iranian Revolution.

Peninsula Shield Force, 1984

• Established by the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Peninsula Shield Force sought to enhance collective military security among Gulf states.
• It was notably deployed in Bahrain in 2011.

Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, 2015

• Saudi Arabia also spearheaded the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC), involving more than 40 countries and focusing on military, financial, ideological and media cooperation against terrorism.
• The MJDA therefore represents the latest stage in a long history of attempts to construct indigenous regional security mechanisms.

Implications for India’s Strategic Interests

The MJDA is particularly important for India because India’s economic and strategic interests are deeply connected to West Asia.

Pakistan’s Expanding Strategic Space

The most immediate concern for India is the possibility that Pakistan could gain greater strategic leverage through its relationship with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.

Pakistan could potentially benefit from:

• Saudi financial resources
• Turkish military technology
• stronger diplomatic backing
• enhanced access to Gulf security networks

This could accelerate Pakistan’s military modernisation and potentially affect India’s conventional military balance.

India-Saudi Arabia Relations: Challenge and Opportunity

The agreement should not automatically be interpreted as an anti-India arrangement.

India and Saudi Arabia have developed substantial:

• economic ties
• energy relations
• investment links
• strategic cooperation
• defence engagement

These relations are institutionalised through the India-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council.

Therefore, India should avoid viewing Saudi Arabia exclusively through the Pakistan-Türkiye prism.

Instead, New Delhi should continue strengthening its direct relationship with Riyadh.

Implications for the Indian Ocean

Perhaps the most important long-term concern is the potential extension of the pact’s strategic influence from West Asia into the western Indian Ocean.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye could potentially expand cooperation in maritime security and defence.

This matters because India seeks to remain a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.

Any greater military coordination involving Pakistan in the Arabian Sea could therefore have consequences for India’s maritime-security calculations.

India would consequently need to strengthen:

• maritime domain awareness
• naval capabilities
• coastal surveillance
• partnerships with Indian Ocean states
• strategic presence around critical sea lanes

Nuclear Dimension

The presence of Pakistan in the agreement introduces a particularly sensitive dimension because Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons.

• The agreement does not, according to the supplied material, establish a formal Pakistani nuclear guarantee to Saudi Arabia.
• Nevertheless, Pakistan’s nuclear capability gives the partnership additional strategic weight and creates concerns about perceptions of extended deterrence.
• This is important because the credibility of any collective-defence arrangement is influenced not merely by conventional military capabilities but also by perceptions regarding strategic deterrence.

India must therefore carefully monitor whether the pact remains a conventional defence arrangement or develops broader strategic dimensions.

Implications for India’s Defence Exports

Türkiye’s expanding defence industry creates another challenge.

• Türkiye has become a significant exporter of drones, aerospace systems and other military technologies.
• A deeper Saudi-Turkish defence relationship could potentially give Turkish defence companies greater access to the Gulf market.
• This could increase competition for India’s emerging defence exports, including platforms and systems such as BrahMos and Akash.

For India, this underlines the need to accelerate:

• defence indigenisation
• R&D
• export-oriented defence production
• drones and counter-drone systems
• air defence
• electronic warfare
• advanced aerospace technologies

Implications for India’s Energy Security

India imports a substantial proportion of its energy requirements, making West Asian stability critically important.

Any escalation involving these countries could affect global energy prices and shipping routes.

• Saudi Arabia
• Iran
• Yemen
• the Red Sea
• Strait of Hormuz

Therefore, India’s interest is not simply geopolitical; it is directly connected to:

• crude oil prices
• inflation
• current-account stability
• shipping costs
• economic growth
• energy security

India should consequently support mechanisms that preserve freedom of navigation and regional stability.

The Connectivity Dimension: IMEC, Chabahar and INSTC

The changing West Asian security environment also affects India’s connectivity strategies.

India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor

• The IMEC depends on political stability and connectivity across the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean.
• A highly polarised regional security environment could complicate its implementation.

Chabahar Port

• India’s engagement with Chabahar Port in Iran provides an alternative connectivity route to Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond.
• Strengthening Chabahar can help prevent India’s continental connectivity options from becoming excessively dependent on routes influenced by Pakistan.

INSTC

• The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) provides another route connecting India with Iran, Central Asia, Russia and Europe.
• Thus, India needs multiple connectivity options rather than dependence on any single regional corridor.

India’s Way Forward

India’s response should not be driven by bloc politics. Instead, it should reinforce its established strategy of multi-alignment and strategic autonomy.

1. Deepen Gulf Partnerships

India should strengthen relations with:

• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Oman
• Qatar
• other Gulf states

Defence, maritime security, energy, investment and emerging-technology cooperation should be expanded.

This would ensure that India’s West Asia policy does not become dependent on any one partner.

2. Strengthen Alternative Connectivity

India should accelerate:

• IMEC
• Chabahar
• INSTC

A diversified connectivity architecture will reduce India’s strategic vulnerability.

3. Accelerate Defence Indigenisation

India should strengthen its indigenous capabilities in:

• AI
• drones
• counter-drone systems
• electronic warfare
• hypersonic technologies
• advanced air defence

4. Strengthen Indian Ocean Security

India should use regional institutions such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to promote maritime transparency and an inclusive security architecture rather than bloc-based competition.

5. Maintain Strategic Autonomy

India should avoid becoming unnecessarily entangled in competing West Asian blocs.

Its objective should be to maintain productive relations simultaneously with:

• Saudi Arabia
• Iran
• Israel
• UAE
• Türkiye
• the United States
• Russia

Such multi-alignment gives India greater diplomatic flexibility.

Broader Significance: From Pax Americana to Multipolar Regionalism

The deeper significance of the MJDA lies beyond the three countries.

• For decades, West Asian security has been heavily influenced by external powers, particularly the United States.
• The emergence of arrangements such as the MJDA indicates that regional powers increasingly want to develop indigenous mechanisms of deterrence and strategic cooperation.
• This does not mean that American influence is disappearing. Rather, the region appears to be moving towards a more complex structure in which US partnerships, regional alliances, bilateral strategic relationships, and economic interdependence coexist simultaneously.
• This emerging order can be described as multipolar regionalism.
• For India, this environment presents both risks and opportunities. India can benefit from its strong relations with multiple regional actors, provided it avoids being drawn into rigid bloc politics.

Conclusion

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement represents an important development in the transformation of West Asia’s security architecture. By bringing together Saudi Arabia’s financial and energy power, Türkiye’s defence-industrial capabilities and Pakistan’s military strength, the pact creates a potentially significant platform for collective deterrence.

Unlike NATO, the MJDA currently lacks the same depth of institutionalisation, integrated command structures and clearly established enforcement mechanisms. Its long-term effectiveness will depend on the political cohesion of the three members and their willingness to translate the collective-defence principle into operational capabilities.

For India, the agreement presents a strategic challenge but not an inevitable strategic setback. Pakistan’s enhanced role in West Asia, Turkish defence expansion and the potential extension of regional security competition into the Indian Ocean require vigilance. At the same time, India’s deep economic and strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia provides substantial room for continued engagement.

The appropriate Indian response is therefore not confrontation but strategic balancing: deepen partnerships with the Gulf, maintain constructive relations with Iran and Israel, strengthen IMEC, Chabahar and INSTC, expand defence exports and indigenous military capabilities, and reinforce India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean.

Ultimately, the emergence of the MJDA illustrates a larger transformation: West Asia is moving from dependence on a single external security provider towards a more fragmented, multipolar and regionally driven security order. India’s ability to navigate this changing environment through multi-alignment, connectivity, maritime power and strategic autonomy will be central to protecting its energy, economic, diaspora and national-security interests.